The Paris Climate Agreement Won't Change the ClimateThe Paris Climate Agreement will cost at least $1 trillion per year, and climate activists say it will save the planet. The truth? It won't do anything for the planet, but it will make everyone poorer--except politicians and environmentalists. Bjorn Lomborg explains.
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Much has been made of the Paris Climate Agreement signed by the leaders of 178 countries in 2016. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius, speaking for many, called it a "historic turning point."
The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Gina McCarthy, echoed the minister's remark when she testified before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology. The Paris Agreement was, she said, an "incredible achievement." But when pressed by committee members to explain exactly how much this treaty would reduce global temperatures, she would not – or could not – say.
This combination of grand pronouncements and vague specifics is a good strategy for Paris Agreement fans to take. Because the agreement will cost a fortune, but do little to reduce global warming.
Consider the Obama administration's signature climate policy, the Clean Power Plan. Using the same climate prediction model that the UN uses, I found that the power plan will accomplish almost nothing. Even if its cuts to carbon dioxide emissions are fully implemented – not just for the 14 years that the Paris Agreement lasts, but for the rest of the century – the Clean Power Plan would reduce the temperature increase in 2100 by just 0.023 degrees Fahrenheit.
The President has made further, and grander, promises of future U.S. carbon cuts, but these are only vaguely outlined. In the unlikely event that all of these extra cuts also happen, and are adhered to throughout the rest of the century, the combined reduction in temperatures would be 0.057 degrees.
To put it another way, if the U.S. delivers for the whole century on the President's very ambitious rhetoric, it would postpone global warming by about eight months at the end of the century.
Now let's add in the rest of the world's Paris promises. If we generously assume that the promised carbon cuts for 2030 are not only met (which itself would be a U.N. first), but sustained, throughout the rest of the century, temperatures in 2100 would drop by 0.3 degrees – the equivalent of postponing warming by less than four years. Again, that's using the UN's own climate prediction model.
But here's the biggest problem: These miniscule benefits do not come free; quite the contrary.
The cost of the Paris climate pact is likely to run to 1 to 2 trillion dollars every year, based on estimates produced by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum and the Asia Modeling Exercise. In other words, we will spend at least one hundred trillion dollars in order to reduce the temperature, by the end of the century, by a grand total of three tenths of one degree.
Some Paris Agreement supporters defend it by claiming that its real impact on temperatures will be much more significant than the U.N. model predicts. But this requires mental gymnastics and heroic assumptions.
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Climate Change "Problem" Solved - its Natural; Prof WeissAt last someone has published a paper which explains all recent climate changes in terms of natural climate cycles instead of the fairy-tale of CO2-driven climate.
Professor Carl-Otto Wiess, adviser to the European Institute for Climate and Energy; Former President of the National Metrology Institute of Germany, Braunschweig, used spectral analysis of all long-term climate data to show that all climate change is due to natural cycles, and there is no signal at all from our CO2 emissions.
Lüdecke, H. J., Hempelmann, A., & Weiss, C. O. (2013). Lüdecke, H. J., Hempelmann, A., & Weiss, C. O. (2013). Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records. Climate of the Past, 9(1), 447-452. 9(1), 447-452.
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Global temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2017Earth’s global surface temperatures in 2017 were the second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to an analysis by NASA.
Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.90 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. That is second only to global temperatures in 2016. Last year was the third consecutive year in which temperatures were more than 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) above late nineteenth-century levels.
NASA’s temperature analyses incorporate surface temperature measurements from 6,300 weather stations, ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, and temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations.
These raw measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the conclusions. These calculations produce the global average temperature deviations from the baseline period of 1951 to 1980.
The full 2017 surface temperature data set and the complete methodology used to make the temperature calculation are available at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.
GISS is a laboratory within the Earth Sciences Division of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.
NASA uses the unique vantage point of space to better understand Earth as an interconnected system. The agency also uses airborne and ground-based monitoring, and develops new ways to observe and study Earth with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. NASA shares this knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.
Future global warmingRoughly every six years, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) enlists hundreds of climate scientists worldwide in producing assessment reports. IPCC report authors rigorously evaluate the latest results from climate models run on supercomputers. Internationally, a few dozen modeling groups—including NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies—contributed projections of 21st century climate to the current IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The models simulated how Earth might respond to different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and reduction measures.
Watch the video to see how global temperatures respond to the business as usual scenario, where carbon dioxide concentrations rise to 936 parts per million—more than double today's levels of 400 parts per million—by the year 2100.
Download the video: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11453.
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Top 10 Energy Sources of the FutureThese are ten most promising alternative energy sources of tomorrow.
It’s a really exciting time to be alive. We have a front row seat to the only known transformation of a world powered by dirty fossil fuels, to a planet that gets its energy from renewable, clean sources. It’s happening just once, right now.
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10. Space-based solar power
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The future of energy?Today, we consume a truly vast amount of energy - with demand continuing to skyrocket at an alarming rate. We know that producing this energy has significant environmental impacts and emitting so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere could cause catastrophic climate change. In this film, three academics look at wind power, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and material efficiency as examples of how we can cut our C02 emissions. They suggest that we must act now in order to avoid the serious risks of man-made global warming, one of our greatest challenges in the 21st century.
The Future of Energy (VICE on HBO: Season 4, Episode 9)At the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, world leaders agreed that climate change is an urgent threat -- cementing green energy production as a new frontier of innovation. VICE takes an in-depth look at the future of how we make and use energy, and how we can meet growing demand as we cut carbon emissions.
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Bill Gates Talks About the Future of EnergyBill Gates talks about the future of energy usage and his investments in alternatives to fossil fuels. He speaks with WSJ's Alan Murray at the 2012 ECO:nomics conference.
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